消費者ローン

Financial Performance

Westlip Credit Ltd presents an early-stage financial profile that combines six months of actual operating data with a model-driven projection through 2028. The preparatory pre-launch period from incorporation on 15 July 2025 to licensing on 24 December 2025 was funded entirely from the owner's capital, with no lending, no loan portfolio and no external debt, and the company entered its operational phase at licensing with a starting cash position of EUR 234,182. Its first six months of lending (December 2025 to May 2026) produced 6,153 loans, EUR 1,103,720 of disbursement and EUR 163,973 of revenue, closing at a pre-tax loss of only EUR 11,912 — approximately 7% of revenue — at or near operating breakeven within six months of launch, with realized defaults equivalent to approximately 2.8% of disbursement. The financial model then projects an operating profit in every forecast year — EUR 491,679 in 2026, EUR 1,306,357 in 2027 and EUR 177,584 in 2028 — as the loan book scales to a peak of EUR 3.63 million at end-2026 on the EUR 4,050,000 external programme and then contracts as that programme is repaid. Interest income rises from EUR 1,890,302 in 2026 to EUR 4,815,201 in 2027 — a 2.5× increase — before easing to EUR 3,841,920 in 2028 as the funded book is wound down.

All figures are presented in EUR. The company operates in Kenyan shillings, converted to euro at a single fixed assumed rate of approximately KES 149.7 per euro applied uniformly to all periods, so that no inter-period exchange-rate movement affects the euro series; because the shilling floats against the euro, the euro equivalents carry a currency-translation sensitivity for a euro-based investor that does not affect the shilling-denominated economics of the loan book. Kenyan corporate income tax of 30.0% is applied to positive taxable profit, with no tax accrued in loss-making periods. The starting cash position of EUR 234,182 at licensing comprises the paid-in share capital of approximately EUR 6,680 (KES 1,000,000) and additional funds contributed by the owner and treated as equity rather than as a shareholder loan. The forecast horizon (June 2026 to December 2028) reflects launch-stage assumptions for pricing, default behaviour, portfolio scaling and external debt drawing; the six months of actual data allow the model's early assumptions to be compared against initial operating experience, but not yet against a full seasoned cycle, as cohort default performance will emerge only over subsequent quarters.

Pre-launch period (July–December 2025)

The period from incorporation on 15 July 2025 to licensing on 24 December 2025 was a preparatory phase in which the company obtained the necessary approvals and registrations, developed its credit, compliance and data-protection policies, and built and tested its lending platform. The regulatory milestones were sequential: approval of the company name by the Central Bank of Kenya in July 2025, registration as a data controller with the Office of the Data Protection Commissioner in November 2025, and the grant of the Digital Credit Provider licence in December 2025. No loan portfolio or external debt existed during this period, and the limited set-up costs incurred are not separately reported in the company's accounts; the build-out was funded entirely from the owner's capital. Ahead of the licence being granted, the company pre-positioned a pipeline of borrowers and prepared the associated documentation so that lending could begin without delay, and the operational phase accordingly commences with licensing in December 2025 from an unencumbered starting position.

Current actuals (December 2025 – May 2026)

The individual line accounts for 6,061 of 6,153 loans by number — 98.5% — but for 59.8% of disbursement by value, reflecting its small average ticket of approximately EUR 100, while the business and factoring lines carry materially larger average tickets of approximately EUR 4,700 and EUR 5,550. Over the six months the company recorded revenue of EUR 163,973, against direct lending costs of EUR 30,895, operating expenses of EUR 114,351 and realized loan defaults of EUR 30,639. The defaults are actual losses crystallised over the period rather than provisions recognised at origination, equivalent to approximately 2.8% of disbursement; given the short tenor of the individual line, much of that book had already run to maturity within the period, while the longer-tenor business and factoring exposures had not fully seasoned. The period closed with a pre-tax loss of EUR 11,912 — approximately 7% of revenue — and, after a tax charge of EUR 3,829 arising from the monthly application of tax in profitable months, a net loss of EUR 15,741. The loan book closed May 2026 at EUR 211,916, well below cumulative disbursement, reflecting the rapid turnover of the short-tenor individual line. These six months constitute the company's only operating history and should not be linearly extrapolated, as the portfolio remains in its formation phase and the longer-tenor cohorts have not yet seasoned.

Forecast income statement (June 2026 – December 2028)

Because the short-tenor individual book turns over many times a year, a conventional yield on average outstanding portfolio would not be representative; the operating metrics above are expressed against revenue, issuance and the year-end balance sheet. The company is projected to be profitable at the full-year level from its first operating year, in contrast to the launch-year losses typical of the sector, with the early-month losses in the actual data outweighed by a strongly scaling second half of 2026. Revenue rises to 2027 on portfolio scaling supported by external funding and then declines into 2028, as the external debt is repaid in full by the end of 2027 and the funded loan book contracts, reducing interest income even as new issuance continues at a high level. Total issuance scales from EUR 10.7 million in 2026 to approximately EUR 17.5 million in each of 2027 and 2028, with the mix shifting markedly toward the individual line — its share of issuance rising from 25.8% to 63.4% as the business share falls from 53.9% to 33.5% and factoring from 20.2% to 3.2%. The outstanding book peaks at EUR 3.63 million at end-2026 and then contracts to EUR 1.35 million and EUR 1.50 million at end-2027 and end-2028, as the longer-tenor business and factoring exposures (business closing EUR 2.41 million, factoring EUR 0.92 million at end-2026) are wound down to a level supported by the company's own capital.

Direct lending costs and operating expenses both grow with activity — direct costs from EUR 192,313 to EUR 923,182 and operating expenses from EUR 311,400 to EUR 1,008,000 — reflecting acquisition, transaction and servicing costs that scale with disbursement volume. The cost-to-income ratio is contained at 16.5% and 17.0% in 2026 and 2027, rising to 26.2% in 2028 only because revenue declines rather than because the cost base expands disproportionately; the direct-cost ratio rises from 10.2% to 24.0% across the forecast on the same basis. Projected loss-on-issuance rises from 6.0% in 2026 to 10.5% in 2027 and 10.0% in 2028 — above the 2.8% realized over the first six months and well above bank benchmarks — reflecting the high-risk individual segment and an elevated system non-performing-loan environment; the model adopts this conservative, non-improving loss assumption rather than relying on an assumed improvement in scoring to deliver its profitability.

Leverage is modest and self-extinguishing. The debt-to-equity ratio peaks at approximately 8.8× during the 2026 drawdown and stands at 6.7× at end-2026 — external debt of EUR 3,700,000 over equity of approximately EUR 552,000 — before falling to nil in 2027 as the debt is repaid in full. The equity base is small, at EUR 234,182 at launch and approximately EUR 0.55 million at end-2026, which limits the capacity to absorb adverse credit or liquidity outcomes, and no further equity injection is assumed over the forecast; the company funds the 2026 build from the external programme and repays it from operating cash flow rather than from a fresh capital injection. The year-end cash position remains positive throughout — EUR 626,490 at end-2026, EUR 113,444 at end-2027 and EUR 93,675 at end-2028 — with lower intra-year troughs. Kenyan corporate tax of 30.0% applies on positive profit, at an effective rate of approximately 29.1% in 2026, reflecting the monthly application of tax in the launch year, and 30.0% thereafter.

External funding stack

The external funding comprises a programme of EUR 4,050,000 drawn in fourteen tranches during 2026, structured as six-month bullets at two pricing bands — EUR 2,750,000 across seven tranches at 22.9% per annum and EUR 1,300,000 across seven tranches at 16.9% per annum, a weighted-average cost of approximately 21.0% per annum. This is an expensive cost of capital that consumes a significant share of the spread and would become a tighter constraint if portfolio economics weakened. The tranches are not refinanced on maturity: each is repaid as it falls due, so the stack is drawn in full during 2026 and amortises to nil by the end of 2027. Total interest over the life of the programme is EUR 424,725 — EUR 255,571 in 2026 and EUR 169,154 in 2027 — and repayments of EUR 350,000 in 2026 and EUR 3,700,000 in 2027 retire the facility in full, leaving the company debt-free from the end of 2027. This profile — modest leverage drawn to fund the 2026 portfolio build and then fully repaid — distinguishes the company's funding from a continuously refinanced debt stack, and is the principal reason both interest cost and the funded portfolio decline after 2026.

Loan serviceability — EUR 4,050,000 funding programme

The facility assessed in this memorandum is the company's entire external funding programme of EUR 4,050,000 rather than a single tranche. Interest on the programme totals EUR 424,725 and is comfortably covered by operating earnings in both periods in which it falls: earnings before interest and tax cover the cost of funding approximately 2.9 times in the June–December 2026 forecast period and 8.7 times in 2027. Interest is therefore serviced from operating profit rather than from cash reserves or new drawings — a position distinct from a launch-stage lender that must fund interest from capital during a loss-making ramp.

Principal amortises through the staggered six-month maturities of the tranches — EUR 350,000 repaid in December 2026 and EUR 3,700,000 across January to June 2027 — with each tranche repaid from the company's own cash generation as it falls due. The model assumes no refinancing, and the external debt balance reaches nil by the end of June 2027; principal repayment accordingly does not depend on the availability of new debt or on rolling the facility, a structural distinction from a single bullet that must be refinanced at maturity.

The monthly cash-flow projection shows the cash position remaining positive throughout the drawdown and repayment period, with its tightest month-end point within the life of the programme at approximately EUR 36,771 in March 2027, during the repayment window, supported by portfolio collections projected at over EUR 1.0 million per month; the wider data series shows lower troughs of approximately EUR 6,525 in May 2026, before the programme is drawn, and EUR 12,925 in September 2027, after it is repaid. The investor's effective exposure is therefore to the company's delivery of the projected portfolio collections and loss rates over the June 2026 to June 2027 window, rather than to the availability of refinancing at maturity. The principal financial risks are launch-stage execution and credit risks — an elevated and rising projected loss rate, a short operating history, a small equity base, the euro-translation sensitivity of a shilling-denominated return, and the dependence of the stronger 2026 and 2027 results on leverage that is subsequently withdrawn — rather than structural business-model risks. If the model's loss, issuance and cost assumptions are delivered as projected, the facility is serviced on both interest and principal; a material deterioration in the loss trajectory or the issuance ramp would compress earnings and the margin of safety.

Growth Plan of Westlip Credit Limited

Strategic growth logic

Westlip Credit Ltd enters its growth phase from a position defined by completed regulatory authorisation and six months of operating data: incorporation on 15 July 2025, licensing by the Central Bank of Kenya as a Digital Credit Provider on 24 December 2025 (Licence No. CBK/DCP/2025/194), and lending from December 2025 funded entirely from the owner's capital. Over its first six months (December 2025 to May 2026) the company originated 6,153 loans for EUR 1,103,720 of disbursement, with contained line-level default rates of approximately 4.5% on the individual line and below 1.0% on the business line and an emerging repeat-borrower base — the first directional validation of the underwriting and retention model. The growth plan extends and scales this same operating model — three product lines, the same proprietary platform and the same underwriting — at materially higher volume, organised around two reinforcing directions: the individual (consumer) line (small-ticket, short-tenor, automated) and the combined business (SME) and factoring lines (larger-ticket, longer or revolving, manually underwritten). The strategic logic is depth of penetration in Kenya across the current product set, with the lower-risk business line prioritised in the first phase; the introduction of additional lending products within the company's existing licensed scope is treated as a subsequent option rather than a precondition for the plan.

The strategic timing is supported by three structural factors documented in the Market Assessment section — formal credit under-penetrated at approximately 31.6% of GDP (2023), an MSME finance gap of approximately EUR 17.8 billion (USD 19.3 billion), and a nascent factoring market against an identified potential of approximately EUR 26 billion (USD 28.7 billion) — combined with monetary easing, as the Central Bank rate was cut to 8.75% and private-sector credit returned to growth, and a tightening licensing regime that progressively favours a licensed, compliant operator as unlicensed lenders are excluded. The quantitative trajectory documented in the financial model: total issuance scales from EUR 1.1 million over the first six months through EUR 10.7 million in full-year 2026 to approximately EUR 17.5 million in each of 2027 and 2028; the outstanding portfolio peaks at EUR 3.63 million at end-2026 and then contracts to EUR 1.35 million and EUR 1.50 million at end-2027 and end-2028 as the debt-funded book is wound down to own-capital scale; and the operating result is a profit in every forecast year — EUR 491,679 in 2026, EUR 1,306,357 in 2027 and EUR 177,584 in 2028.

Business line growth

The business (SME) and factoring lines are prioritised in the first phase and form the larger contributor to 2026 issuance — business issuance of EUR 5.79 million (53.9% of the total) growing to EUR 7.32 million in 2027 before easing to EUR 5.81 million in 2028, and factoring of EUR 2.17 million (20.2%) declining to EUR 0.55 million by 2028 — carrying the lower default rate (below 1.0%) and the more predictable cash flow, with the business book reaching EUR 2.41 million outstanding at end-2026. The central operational change is the automation of the currently manual business line, using mobile-money transaction and Credit Reference Bureau data while retaining manual due diligence for larger exposures, which lifts the analyst-capacity ceiling that bounds business-line throughput; factoring is held at a deliberately modest, declining scale for its low risk and the SME relationships it opens. The individual line is the faster-scaling vector — issuance rising from EUR 2.77 million in 2026 (25.8%) to EUR 8.96 million in 2027 and EUR 11.01 million in 2028, lifting its share of issuance to 63.4% — scaled more cautiously through tighter entry rules for new borrowers, a graduated starting limit that rises only as a clean repayment record is established, and continuous scoring recalibration, alongside growth of the repeat-borrower base (currently approximately 15% of the line) through higher limits, faster approval, preferential pricing, completion bonuses and payment-deferral flexibility. Marketing and acquisition spend is held to a small share of issuance throughout, consistent with a channel mix weighted toward referral and relationship channels that carry low cost and a degree of borrower pre-selection.

Investment allocation — use of loan proceeds

The proposed facility of EUR 4,050,000 is allocated in its entirety to portfolio formation — the funding of new loan originations across the three lending lines — and is not used for operating expenses, technology development, equipment or any non-lending purpose. The split weights the lower-risk business and factoring lines in the early growth phase while funding the expansion of the individual line, with flexibility to adjust within the envelope as demand develops. The programme's six-month tranche structure broadly aligns with the tenor of the funded book — individual loans running for days to a few months and business loans for one to twelve months — so that the loans funded by each tranche substantially complete their cycle within the tranche's life; the constraint removed is a rolling working-capital constraint, as funded loans mature and repay and the same capital recycles into new originations within the limits of the programme.

Acquisition channels

The acquisition strategy is built on a deliberate avoidance of large-scale paid marketing as a primary growth lever, replaced by a portfolio of low-cost, mobile-money-native channels — reflecting two structural choices: customer-acquisition cost is a sensitive variable for a lender operating on a finite spread, so the company prioritises channels whose cost is incurred only on a completed loan or which carry no external cost at all; and the channel mix is chosen to improve borrower quality at the point of acquisition, as referral and relationship channels bring borrowers with a degree of pre-selection that paid channels do not. Around eight in ten loans in Kenya are originated through digital channels, so a licensed digital lender can acquire and serve customers without a branch network, adding more scalable but higher-cost channels as the lowest-cost channels approach their capacity limits.

Capital structure and leverage profile

The growth plan does not provide for a further increase in paid-in capital: the company funds its launch and early operations from the owner's equity contribution of EUR 234,182 and funds the 2026 portfolio build from the external programme of EUR 4,050,000, with no planned equity injection over the forecast period. The leverage this produces is contained and temporary — the company is unlevered before the programme is drawn and after it is repaid, and within the active period the debt-to-equity ratio begins at approximately 1.8× when the first tranche is drawn in June 2026, rises to a peak of approximately 8.8× in October 2026 as the tranches accumulate faster than retained earnings, stands at 6.7× at end-2026 (external debt of EUR 3,700,000 over equity of approximately EUR 552,000), and then declines through the repayment period to approximately 0.5× by May 2027 and to nil from June 2027 once the programme is fully repaid.

This is a moderate leverage profile for a non-bank lender, and its defining feature is that the peak is transient and self-extinguishing: unlike a continuously refinanced debt stack, which holds leverage elevated for as long as the facility is rolled, the company's leverage rises only to fund the 2026 portfolio build and is then repaid in full from operating cash flow, leaving the company debt-free from mid-2027. The decision not to raise further equity preserves the existing ownership and reflects the model's demonstration that the programme is serviced and repaid from operating cash flow rather than requiring a capital buffer to support it; the company retains the option to raise equity in future against demonstrated performance, but the forecast does not depend on it.

Conclusion

The growth plan of Westlip Credit Ltd scales an operating model already proven on a small scale — three lending lines on a proprietary platform, an underwriting-led non-bank digital lender position, and six months of operating data showing contained line-level defaults — at a transaction volume that takes total issuance from EUR 10.7 million in 2026 to approximately EUR 17.5 million in each of 2027 and 2028, with the outstanding portfolio peaking at EUR 3.63 million at end-2026 before contracting to a level supported by the company's own capital as the external programme is repaid. The plan does not depend on new geographies or institutional restructuring; it depends on the orderly scaling of documented unit economics through low-cost distribution channels, operating against an under-penetrated Kenyan credit market with favourable structural drivers — a large MSME finance gap, a nascent factoring market, monetary easing and a licensing regime that favours compliant operators. A single financing instrument carries the plan: the EUR 4,050,000 programme, allocated 60% to the business and factoring lines and 40% to the individual line, funds the 2026 portfolio build and is repaid in full from operating cash flow by mid-2027, with no equity injection required and a transient peak leverage of approximately 8.8× that fully unwinds. The principal risks are execution and credit risks rather than structural risks — delivering individual-line default control at scale, executing the business-line automation, and meeting the projected origination and collection schedule through the funded window — partially mitigated by the granular monthly model, the sequencing of growth behind the lower-risk business line, the short tenor of the individual book that limits at-risk balances, and the diversification across three lines.

Description of the Loan

To fund the formation of the company's loan portfolio across the individual, business and factoring lines documented earlier in this Executive Summary, Westlip Credit Ltd intends to obtain a EUR 4,050,000 term-loan facility structured as a series of fixed bullet tranches at two fixed annual interest rates — EUR 2,750,000 at 23.1% per annum and EUR 1,300,000 at 16.9% per annum, a weighted-average cost of approximately 20.0%. The facility is drawn on a fixed schedule of fourteen tranches over seven consecutive periods — two tranches in each period, one in each of the two pricing bands — with each drawn tranche carrying an independent six-month bullet maturity and monthly interest-only servicing. Interest accrues only on amounts actually drawn, so the monthly interest obligation grows in line with cumulative drawdowns rather than reaching its maximum at facility inception, which protects both lender and borrower from carry cost on capital not yet deployed into the loan portfolio. The facility is not used for operating expenses, technology development, equipment or any non-lending purpose — 100% of drawn capital is deployed to portfolio formation across the three lines, split 60% to the business and factoring lines and 40% to the individual line — and, unlike a continuously refinanced facility, its principal is repaid from the company's own cash generation rather than rolled at maturity.

Indicative facility terms

Drawdown structure

The facility is drawn on a fixed schedule of fourteen tranches across seven consecutive periods, two tranches in each period — one at 23.1% per annum and one at 16.9% per annum. The schedule is set out below.

The tranches are drawn as portfolio formation proceeds, so that capital is deployed into new originations rather than held idle: the period drawdown rises from EUR 350,000 in the first period to EUR 650,000 in each of the fourth to seventh periods, and cumulative drawings reach the full EUR 4,050,000 by the seventh period. Each tranche begins its own six-month maturity clock from its drawdown, producing a staggered repayment profile rather than a single concentrated bullet; the monthly interest obligation builds to a peak of EUR 64,608 in the seventh period — on a maximum outstanding balance of EUR 3,700,000, since the first-period tranche matures as the final tranches are drawn — and unwinds to nil by the thirteenth period, for total interest of EUR 427,475 over the life of the programme. Interest is comfortably covered by operating earnings, with earnings before interest and tax covering the cost of funding approximately 2.9 times in 2026 and 8.7 times in 2027, and principal is repaid from the company's own cash generation — continuous portfolio amortisation, operating profit and a cash position that remains positive throughout — rather than from refinancing. The six-month tranche tenor accordingly aligns asset-side cash returns with liability-side repayment obligations, and the investor's effective exposure is to the delivery of the projected portfolio collections rather than to the availability of refinancing at maturity.