Avocado Processing

• Execution timing for installation and commissioning of the refinery, and growth assumptions that depend on a timely production ramp-up.
• Loan disbursement delays and revenue timing mismatches.
• FX and export logistics volatility.
• Temporary margin compression from debt servicing: net profit in 2026 is reduced by the loan repayment.

Mitigation: secured equipment contracts, with the supplier already paid a €182,000 down payment and production underway; phased revenue projections; and sufficient retained earnings as buffer capacity. The company had zero debt exposure before 2025, and its loan structure is aligned with operating cash flow.

Between 2021 and 2024 Kathy & Ray Horticultures Limited delivered consistent revenue growth and profitability, maintaining stable margins and avoiding external debt. Retained earnings rose significantly, creating a strong capital base for the 2025–2026 expansion.

Historical financial performance 2021–2024, €

The company maintained upward financial momentum, with gross profit increasing nearly 50% across the period. CAPEX remained moderate and self-financed, and the company entered 2025 with a debt-free balance sheet and strong reserves.

Forecast 2025–2026, €

The 2025 forecast shows healthy profitability from ongoing operations. In 2026 revenue nearly doubles on refined oil sales, but net profit is temporarily compressed by the lump-sum debt repayment; operationally the company remains cash-flow positive.

Repayment capacity

Loan-related costs are fully incorporated into the projections. Interest is paid monthly and principal is repaid in full at the end of each tranche. The projected 2026 operating profit of €873,349.25 covers the €867,875.00 of total financial costs.

• Strong track record of profitability and internal reinvestment.
• Zero debt exposure prior to 2025.
• Loan structure aligned with operating cash flow.
• Forecast profits exceed repayment obligations.

The company has built a stable financial base and maintained profitability through disciplined capital use. The short-term dip in 2026 profit is expected and linked to debt servicing; long-term financial viability remains strong, with forecast operations supporting full repayment and further scaling.

The company is expanding through the construction of a refined avocado oil facility near Nairobi with a capacity of 8–10 tons of fresh avocado a day. The factory will integrate the full refining process, diversify the company beyond unrefined oil, and is expected to produce 1,100–1,700 litres of refined oil daily once operational.

Commercial foundation

The company has secured advance commercial interest covering 109,280 kg of refined avocado oil a year from clients including Gustav Heess GmbH & Co. KG, Aperoliva S.L., Chosen Foods LLC and AMD Special Oil LLC. Letters of intent have also been signed with additional B2B buyers across Europe, the US and the Middle East.

Economics of the refinery

• Raw avocado input: €0.38/kg
• Oil yield: 17%
• Processing loss: 2.5%
• Average selling price: €7.00/kg

These metrics support a high-margin, export-oriented product line. The project includes hiring over 30 staff across production, logistics, administration and quality control to run the plant autonomously.

Investment and financing

A €182,000 down payment has already been made to the supplier, Myande Group Co., Ltd., and equipment production is underway. The growth initiative is backed by client commitments, proven economics and an active implementation timeline; it repositions the company as a dual-line producer with higher value capture and improved export competitiveness.

Global vegetable oil market

The global vegetable oil market was valued at €257 billion in 2023 and is expected to exceed €340 billion by 2030. Specialty oils like avocado are gaining share, especially among health-conscious consumers in developed regions, and cold-pressed and unrefined oils form a high-margin segment within the broader industry.

Avocado oil market

Valued at approximately €510 million in 2023, the global avocado oil market is projected to reach €810–875 million by 2030. Growth is driven by demand for clean-label oils in premium food products, personal care and wellness applications. The US and Europe lead global consumption, Asia-Pacific markets show emerging demand, and B2B buyers in food manufacturing, cosmetics and nutraceuticals dominate end use.

Consumption trends

Annual global consumption of avocado oil exceeded 95,000 metric tons in 2023, with the US accounting for around 35%. Industrial buyers prefer bulk formats, while retail remains niche. Around 70% of usage is food-related, followed by cosmetics and nutraceuticals.

The company is well positioned in a high-growth, premium product segment, with a B2B focus, a strong client base and geographic advantages; continued competitiveness will depend on managing logistics challenges and infrastructure investment.

Kathy & Ray Horticultures Limited requests a €750,000 loan to procure the processing equipment for its new avocado oil refinery. The equipment costs €932,000 in total, of which €182,000 has already been paid to the supplier, Myande Group Co., Ltd. The loan is disbursed in three equal tranches of €250,000.

The phased structure follows the supplier’s delivery schedule and avoids excess liquidity build-up. The loan lets the company enter refined avocado oil production — expanding its portfolio, boosting margins and meeting confirmed demand from international buyers; without it, execution would be delayed and contractual obligations could be disrupted. It complements internal equity and lets the company scale output while keeping liquidity discipline.

To secure the €750,000 loan the company offers a diversified package of existing equipment, cash reserves, newly acquired fixed assets and a personal vehicle pledged by the founder. The total adjusted collateral value exceeds €1.56 million — more than 200% of the requested loan.

All pledged assets are unencumbered and have resale value in the event of default. High-value industrial equipment and real estate, alongside liquid reserves and personal collateral, give the lender tangible fallback value.

The collateral strategy is comprehensive and risk-mitigating: the total pledged value provides more than full coverage of the loan principal, making the financial structure robust and secure for external financing.

Kathy & Ray Horticultures Limited, founded in 2017 and based in Kenya, specialises in the production of unrefined cold-pressed avocado oil for export. Originally a pre-export avocado handling facility, the company shifted to oil production in 2018 and now operates an integrated processing plant located near Kenya’s avocado-growing regions. It supplies B2B clients in the food sector, including bulk traders, private-label manufacturers and natural product distributors, and controls the entire value chain from sourcing to packaging, with two lines capable of continuous output.

The company is fully owned and directed by Nyongesa Bramwel Ndombi, whose operational expertise in oil processing, logistics and plant management has driven the company’s growth and its ability to maintain consistent export relationships. His direct management keeps daily operations aligned with strategic goals.

Kenya is a growing avocado oil exporter, benefiting from year-round harvests, low labour costs and proximity to Europe and the Middle East. Kathy & Ray exports exclusively under a B2B model, serving distributors and processors in high-value markets.